IS TEXAS...TOAST?

1) The Longhorns have no more juice on their schedule. Home games versus unranked Baylor and Texas A&M sandwiched around a trip to unranked Kansas will do little to raise their, or McCoy's profile.

2) If Texas Tech beats either Oklahoma State or Oklahoma, they too will finish 11-1. And then the tiebreaker, if the only two tied schools are the Red Raiders and Longhorns, is head-to-head. Which the Red Raiders will win. And if there are three teams left (any combo of Texas plus two of the following: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech), then the school with the highest BCS ranking will represent the Big 12 South.

     Right now Texas is 4th in the BCS;

     Texas Tech is 2nd;

     Oklahoma 6th;

     and Oklahoma State, 9th.

    Those three other teams must all still play one another. Right now I'd say the Longhorns' best chance is for the Cowboys to run the table against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Not impossible, but the Cowboys have the bad luck of facing Texas, Texas Tech and OU on the road this season. Which, by the way, is why you should watch out for Oklahoma State in 2009.(correction: Oklahoma State hosts Oklahoma on Nov. 29th).

What will happen: 

Here is why Saturday's Oklahoma State-Texas Tech game is actually the most important remaining game in the Longhorns' season. If Texas Tech wins, then the worst they could do is lose on November 22nd at Oklahoma and finish 11-1 (I'm assuming that all four monster Big 12 South teams will handle their remaining unranked foes). If there's a three-way tie in the Big 12 between Tech and the Horns and OU (assuming the Sooners win at Oklahoma State the following Saturday), then it comes down to the BCS standings.

       And, in that case, I think the most recent winner of the highest-profile game (i.e., OU over Tech) will get the nod.

      Now, what if Oklahoma State wins in Lubbock? Then all four schools have one loss. Texas is alive again should OU beat Tech in Norman on Nov. 22nd because then the Red Raiders would have two losses. And the following weekend, Oklahoma State hosts Oklahoma, meaning that a second Big 12 South school will have two losses. Whoever wins that OU-Oklahoma State game will technically be tied with Texas, but the Longhorns would get the nod on their having won the head-to-head matchups versus both Oklahoma schools in October.

    So, it's this simple: If Oklahoma State wins this Saturday, the Longhorns are alive and praying for OU to beat Texas Tech in two weeks. If Texas Tech wins, it's going to be highly unlikely for Burnt Orange to be anything better than an at-large team in the BCS. And that's simply amazing, since no school in recent memory played a more memorable four-game stretch and the Horns came within eight seconds of finishing it 4-0.

Their BCS Pulse Still Beats

It may be November 6th, but 27 schools still have a realistic shot at an automatic BCS bowl berth because they remain in the race for their respective conference championships.

ACC (8 schools)

Eight schools from a twelve-team conference. Parity blows.

Maryland (6-2, 3-1, Atlantic Division).....

All four remaining opponents have winning records

Florida State (6-2, 3-2, Atlantic)....

Division title most likely hinges on Nov. 22 visit to Maryland

Wake Forest (5-3, 3-2, Atlantic)

In good shape, since they beat FSU and their toughest remaining games are at home

Georgia Tech (7-2, 4-2, Coastal Division)

Wreck need the winner of the Nov. 29 Virginia-Virginia Tech game to lose befoe that meeting

Miami (6-3, 3-2, Coastal)

Back-to-back Thursday night games versus the Techs (Virginia, at Georgia) will determine their fate

Virginia (5-4, 3-2, Coastal)

Wahoos actually in good shape since one of their two divisional losses was to non-factor Duke

North Carolina (6-2, 2-2, Coastal)

If Heels sweep next two (Georgia Tech, at Maryland), book flight to Tampa

Virginia Tech (5-3, 2-2, Coastal)

Who's going to play QB? Hokies have lost two straight; I don't see it

BIG EAST (3 schools)

All three still play one another round-robin style. But West Virginia has yet to lose.

Cincinnati (6-2, 2-1)

Sweep West Virginia and Pitt

Pittsburgh (6-2, 2-1)

Sweep Cincy and West Virginia

West Virginia (6-2, 3-0)

Mountaineers can afford to lose one game as long as it isn't to the winner of Pitt-Cincy on Nov. 22nd

BIG TEN (2 schools)

I say two instead of three because Penn State would have to lose two of their last three games for Ohio State to have a shot. Just don't see it.

Penn State (9-0, 5-0)

It will likely come down to the Spartans' visit on Nov. 22nd.

Michigan State (8-2, 5-1)

Sparty, who is growing tired of handing off to Rece Davis on "College Football Live", will have two weeks to prep for his visit to Happy Valley.

BIG 12 (7 schools)

You've already read about the four schools in the Big 12 South, so I'll spare you that here.

Kansas (6-3, 3-2, North)

Even if they lose to Texas, can win division by beating Mizzou in season finale

Missouri (7-2, 3-2, North)

Even if they win the next two, will have to beat KU straight-up in season finale  

Nebraska (5-4, 2-3, North)

Improbable, not impossible. Huskers must beat KU this weekend, then have KU beat Mizzou. And somewhere in the interim Mizzou must lose to either Iowa State or Kansas State. Okay, maybe it is impossible. 

Pac-10 (3 schools)

Oregon State is in the lead, but USC is drafting just off their outside shoulder.  

Cal (6-2, 4-1)............If the Golden Bears beat USC and Oregon State in the next two weekends, they'll almost surely be headed to the Rose Bowl as the Pac-10 champs.

Oregon State (5-3, 4-1).......If the Beavers simply win out their final four Pac-10 games, including home games versus Cal and the Civil War, then they'll win the Pac-10 and play in their first Rose Bowl since the 1964 season.

USC (7-1, 5-1).....The Trojans needs to win their remaining games and hope that the Beavers lose one of their reamining games against three stiff opponents: Cal, Arizona and Oregon.

SEC (4 schools)

Vandy could shake everything up by beating the heavily favored Gators in Nashville on Saturday. Georgia would need Florida to lose to both Vandy and South Carolina, and that ain't happenin', so I've excluded them. 

Florida (7-1, 5-1, East)

If the Gators beat Vanderbilt this weekend, they're in

Vanderbilt (5-3, 3-2, East)

True, Vandy has lost three straight, but all they need to do is upset the Gators and they have the inside track to the SEC East title...provided they beat Kentucky and Tennessee 

Alabama (9-0, 5-0, West)

Tide own the SEC West unless they lose this weekend in Baton Rouge and then at home to Mississippi State or in Iron Bowl 

LSU (6-2, 3-2, West)

Tigers must take down the top-ranked team, Bama, in Death Valley, and then hope for help from Miss. State (unlikely) or Auburn.