In about 45 minutes, Roger Federer will attempt to equal Pete Sampras' all-time record of 14 career grand slam titles.
My feeling is Federer in 4 today, but it's certainly been a tough tournament for him - and Robin Soderling is so focused he's almost possessed. Aside from playing the best tennis of his career, Soderling has shown he won't be rattled by the pressures and attention of a major final - he already said that making it to his first semifinal was emotionally a lot easier and less distracting than he expected, and that shouldn't change now. He also has the added advantage of having defeated Nadal at Roland Garros - something he holds not only over Federer, but over every other player in the world. He could face anyone today and know he has what he needs to win.
The general vibe here is as though everyone on the grounds is holding their breath...definitely a little quieter than you'd expect. A year ago I would have said Federer wins it easily, but nobody seems to be of that opinion today.
The French Open has been filled with high drama, and the final act, Sunday's men's singles final, could be the culmination of great tennis theater. Roger Federer seeks to complete a career Grand Slam, and in doing so match Pete Sampras' record for most majors won (14). Robin Soderling, the No. 23 seed and not even on the radar when this major began, seeks to cap his improbable Roland Garros run with a title.
Federer has never played in a major like this, contesting every game rather than dominating. Rather than hovering above the field, allowing no mortal to challenge, he has been engaged in fierce battles, four times playing from behind to overcome opponents, the best of these efforts coming against Juan Martin del Potro 3-6, 7-6 (2), 2-6, 6-1, 6-4 in the semifinals.
The Swiss' track record this fortnight in Paris makes a prediction for the final difficult. Federer has reached a fourth straight Roland Garros title match, having lost the last three to Rafael Nadal. But it is not Nadal who is awaiting him this time around, but rather Soderling, who is on a career-best run. Federer is hardly performing at his best, yet he plays on Sunday in his 15th final in the last 16 Grand Slam events. Incredibly, he's also made it to 20 straight semifinals at the majors. We will never again see the likes of such excellence.
Federer's return game is still a notch below what it was in the past. It's well above average without a doubt, but too often opponents are coasting through sets without a push from Federer. And that could be a problem on Sunday. No doubt that Federer handles the moment, his two comeback five-set wins show that he can handle the pressure that grew out of Nadal's early exit. But he will face a man playing superior tennis, the best tennis of his career.
Against Fernando Gonzalez in the semifinals, for two sets Soderling continued the brilliance that got him past Nadal and Nikolay Davydenko. Soderling was playing power clay-court tennis, handling high balls with astounding strength, and hammering wide flat serves to great effect. In essence, Soderling, on the red clay, has forced his opponents out of their game.
Just when Soderling appeared poised to knock out Gonzalez, the Chilean found his serve, and stayed on court long enough to allow Soderling's level to slip. It was the first sign of weakness shown by the Swede in his last four matches, and the dip allowed Gonzalez to reach the fifth set with a 4-1 lead.
And then from somewhere Soderling found one more push. Inspired by the front-row presence of fellow Swede Bjorn Borg, Soderling played well enough to cut his deficit to 4-2. He pumped a fist at Borg, and proceeded to regain the physical edge. Four more games and Soderling was in his first Grand Slam event final.
SUNDAY'S KEYS:
FATIGUE: Does Soderling have the conditioning to rebound from his long battles with Nadal and Gonzalez as well as David Ferrer in the third round? Federer has also played long matches, but his fitness is unquestioned, and he is accustomed to the two-week grind of a major. Until this fortnight, Soderling had not gotten past the third round of a major.
STAGE FRIGHT: Watch Soderling's feet in the first set. Nerves often are exposed by footwork. Soderling has moved beautifully at Roland Garros. If he continues to show that in the first set on Sunday, he will have conquered his nerves.
POWER: Can Federer withstand Soderling's punishing attack? Fair question, it seems, since Nadal used a similar game to take Federer out three years running.
DESTINY: The French Open is the only major Federer has never won. Is the Swiss Master ready for his best chance to win Roland Garros, and earn recognition as the greatest player of all-time?
Is Soderling, who has come out of nowhere in Paris, destined to complete one of the greatest runs ever at a major, beating both Nadal and Federer to win the title?
Sunday will provide the answer, and either way a great story will have been written on the dirt at Roland Garros, one that will go down in French Open lore.
- Ted Robinson
Roger Federer's streaks of reaching 20 consecutive semifinals in Grand Slam events, and the finals of 14 of the last 15 majors, are the tennis equivalent of Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hit streak.
They are a test of both endurance and excellence. We will not live to see another player approach these marks, just as DiMaggio's streak has had no threat for nearly seven decades.
A great player will have to excel simply to play 20 straight majors let alone avoid upset. Today's tennis demands so much from the body before the mind can be asked to answer that challenge.
And here are the reasons Federer has amassed sports' most underappreciated streak:
BODY: He has stayed healthy, 38 straight majors contested and counting, with a game that limits demands while maximizing output. First thing Federer told me that he did after finishing the hard court season was to work on his fitness. Renowned for conditioning, Federer has used this edge to avoid not just serious injury but the nagging hurts (read: Nadal's knee) that limit others.
MIND: We referenced recently the line between self-confidence and denial. Federer has walked it masterfully at this French Open, renouncing the perilous danger he faced against Jose Acasuso and Tommy Haas while dominating his biggest threat in Gael Monfils. No doubt, the great one has shown vulnerability. And the players sense the slightly wounded warrior. But ready to pounce, they are rebuffed by the self-confident Federer who refuses to accept his mortality.
Never was the difference in a mind more evident than in Wednesday's quarterfinal when Federer exhibited the mind of a champion, while the wildly talented Monfils was still afflicted with the lapses that a top-10 pro should have long ago overcome.
SUPPORT: Federer is clearly strengthened by his long relationship with Mirka Vavrinec. Their recent marriage is simply a legality given the immense co-dependence so rare in their generation. Federer schedules wisely, understanding he plays to the weekend in most tournaments. Thus, he has avoided the "overplaying" to which Nadal has fallen prey.
Bottom line is this is a man "written off" in the sports psyche. Yet, he has reached the last four finals at Grand Slam events, and as mentioned, 14 of the last 15. He is a heavy favorite Friday to extend that run. There has been one nemesis, Rafael Nadal, but the Spainard has not approached either of Federer's DiMaggio-like streaks.
Like DiMaggio, Federer is a graceful champion, one loathe to displaying emotion, proud perhaps to a fault. Federer does not breed a dislike for publicity as did DiMaggio, neither though does Federer seek the limelight. Simply, he shows up, respects the game, his opponents, fans, sponsors, volunteers and even the press. And then he wins. Yet it took a massive upset of his archrival to once again allow Federer to receive the credit he has truly earned.
Twenty straight Grand Slam event semifinals, and counting. Federer's Joltin' Joe in the 21st century.
- Ted Robinson
-Soderling and Gonzalez proved that the upsets they executed this week were well deserved, going 5 strong sets, and 23rd seed Robin Soderling advanced to his first career grand slam final. In the press room after the big upset on Sunday, Rafa Nadal said that when a player plays badly he deserves to lose and that's what happened to him. We now know for sure that he didn't give Soderling nearly enough credit.
-The general consensus among commentators seems to be that Soderling is not well-liked on the ATP tour, which may be to his advantage if he ends up facing Federer in the final. Soderling definitely won't have the crowd behind him, but if he's used to that, it might
fuel his energy. Not being the fan favorite didn't hurt him when he took out Nadal, but maybe he was just that focused. In his post-match press conference today he was actually asked why he doesn't say hi to other players more often in the locker room, and he was candid
- he's tense before matches, doesn't like to talk, and nothing's going to change that now that he's made a slam final. When asked how his nerves will be affected by the spotlight of center court, he was equally cool: "It's just tennis, I never really cared how many were watching." I don't think Soderling's aloofness is intentional - he's not being rude, he's just
doing what he needs to do to give himself the best chance to win. He's here for the tennis and nothing else, and it's tough to root against a guy who would want this title more than anything even if the final were on court 14 and he wouldn't win a dime.
-This has been said already, but even though the first semi today was made up of relative unknowns, it was a classic French Open match. Both guys labored for every point, and Soderling in particular showed signs of the 11+ hours he has spent on court throughout the tournamnet. His matches have been long and tough on the legs - at one point he called in the trainer for a blister and we saw that his entire foot was covered in tape.
-In keeping with the theme of deserving underdogs, Del Potro can hang with Federer. He took the first set 6-3, lost the second in a tiebreak, and just won the third. If Feds loses this match, the final at Roland Garros will once again be all about Federer & Nadal...it'll just be about how bizarre it is that they're not here.
- Lena M. Glaser
-Dinara Safina has made her 3rd career grand slam final. Considering the upsets of Nadal, Serena, Djokovic, and Ivanovic in the past week, a #1 seed actually making the final seems almost unexpected. Safina will be appearing in her second consecutive French Open final (she lost last year to Ana Ivanovic). Her opponent is Svetlana Kuznetsova, '04 US Open Champion, who was a finalist here in 2006. All-Russian Women's Final! Don't be fooled by the presence of only one "'ova."
-The Bryan Brothers lost earlier, but one American team has gone the distance - Bob Bryan and Liezel Huber are the 2009 French Open Mixed Doubles Champions. They defeated Vania King and Brazilian Marcelo Melo, the best named team of the tournament.
-Although we've been off for the past three days, there is no escaping the tennis. Elsewhere in Paris, outside the Hotel de Ville, they have set up a full clay court experience, where people can come and actually play a bit - or they can hang out and watch tournament coverage, which is being streamed live to a giant projection screen. It's very similar to the way the US Open overtakes New York during Labor Day Weekend - I speak about 5 words of french, all of which can be found on a menu, and I can still tell that everyone is talking about the tournament.
More info from the French Tennis Federation, and some photos can be found here:
http://www.fft.fr/rolandgarros/rgdlv/en/PDF/concept.pdf
-The hottest topic in town is the loss of Rafa Nadal, but I'm guessing aside from the Spaniards, no one is more put off than Nike. Their flagship store in Paris, a prominent fixture on the Champs-Elysees, features a two-story billboard of the Champ, with the words, "V is for Victory." Yikes. He also has a giant "V" painted in clay on his bare chest. It's a great photo, just unfortunately timed.
Could this be the start of a new curse? I've been wondering what Federer will show up wearing at Wimbledon, considering his traditional one-of-a-kind Champion's gear might no longer be entirely appropriate. Maybe capri pants and something showing a little shoulder...
-Lena M. Glaser
Nadal losing on clay to an indoor specialist?
But Soderling employed the tactics many have implored Federer to use against Nadal. Soderling simply went all out on every shot of every point. He whaled forehands boldly, striking lines regularly. He blasted first serves over 130 mph, and we laughed in amazement at the boldness that allowed Soderling to hit 122-123 mph SECOND serves.
Simply put: No one is going to beat Nadal from the baseline at Roland Garros, and Soderling knew he had to put new meaning into playing with aggression. His heavy serve produced an astounding number of short returns from Nadal. I have never seen Nadal lose more three-stroke points, as Soderling repeatedly blasted winners off Nadal's weak replies.
Finally, Soderling never blinked in the big moments. He crushed serves, absolute bombs, in the final set and for the first time, in the words of John McEnroe, Nadal "looked like a middleweight fighting a heavyweight."
Where does it rank as an upset? McEnroe compared this to Michael Chang's unforgettable upset of Ivan Lendl in the 1989 French Open in the Round of 16. Or Peter Doohan taking out two-time Wimbledon champion Boris Becker in 1987. I tried Federer over Pete Sampras in the 2001 Wimbledon, the end of Sampras' reign on grass. Admittedly, that's a reach as Nadal is hardly finished on clay.
Simply, we didn't see this one coming, not two days after Nadal dismantled Lleyton Hewitt, not from a Swede with no clay credentials, not at this Roland Garros, where Nadal seemed healthy and strong.
Now what? No doubt Federer just picked up a ton of expectation. He couldn't take down Nadal in four tries in Paris, and now someone else has done the work. And in three and half hours, Federer went from one of the chasers to the prohibitive favorite.
I am not sure Federer is ready for that role. His last two matches have been a struggle and in no way is he playing as smoothly as he has in the last three years here.
But this shocking upset created for Federer a chasm into which he can make history. Win here and he has an irrefutable case for being the greatest player of all time. Win here and he will most certainly add one more major after this to break Pete Sampras' record for most Grand Slam titles (14). Win here and he is still relevant in the discussion for the World No. 1 ranking.
One offshoot of this upset is how great does Federer's run of making 19 straight Grand Slam semifinals look after Nadal's loss? And how about making 14 of the last 15 Grand Slam finals -- all from a guy too quickly written off in the last year?
Federer has a tough road to navigate just to reach next Sunday's final. He's used to the spotlight, but a whole new pressure just landed on his shoulders.
-- Ted Robinson
A quick update from off-site - luckily Federer came back from two sets down against Tommy Haas this morning. I'm hoping he feels better after taking the last three in traditional domninant Federer form (6-4, 6-0, 6-2). We can just forget about the other two for now.
While we wait for the Roddick/Monfils match to start, here's something almost completely unrelated - Tennis on Twitter.
If you're curious about players' schedules and what they do on off days, it's actually not a bad way to get some interesting information. And the occasional restaurant recommendation for those of us in Paris...several of the bigger stars in town are all about it. Check out:
@andyroddick
@justingimelstob (Now a Tennis Channel Commentator)
@andy_murray
@bryanbros (Bob Bryan)
@serenajwilliams
As NBC is not on again until Friday, enjoy the coverage from our friends at The Tennis Channel (who can also be followed at @tennischannel).
-Lena M. Glaser
Obligatory headlines:
There will be no fourth consecutive Federer-Nadal final at Roland Garros. The 4-time reigning champ and my most favorite Spaniard was ousted by Swede Robin Soderling in 4 sets - the first time Rafa has lost at Roland Garros.
The two also played a 5-setter in the 3rd round of Wimbledon in 2007- a memorable match involving multiple rain delays, which ultimately took 5 days to finish. Soderling clearly
still gets under Rafa's skin - watch out during the broadcast today for some footage of the '07 match, dug up for your enjoyment.
Ana Ivanovic, defending champ on the women's side, is also out. Oh, and the Williams sisters
lost in doubles. So unless you're Roger Federer, it was a pretty upsetting day. Federer, I'd imagine, would be doing cartwheels in his hotel room right now if he weren't so darn classy. Plus it might un-tousel his perfect coiff. Which would be upsetting mostly for me.
With Djokovic already out and Roddick on a roll, this could set up some great semifinal matchups, which we'll have for you on NBC's Friday coverage next week.
Stay tuned...
-Lena M. Glaser
I was going to post something about how magnificent the tennis was today, and the perfect weather, and how great the matchups will be in Week 2.
But after watching the hot mess that went down in the first set of Serena Williams' match against Spain's Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez, I thought the drama deserved a little payoff.
In the first set, Martinez Sanchez broke Serena on a point in which the ball (clearly) ricocheted off her right arm. ITF rules dictacte that if the ball hits off a player's body, he or she does not win the point. Serena argued a bit and lost. Her opponent made no attempt to admit to the fact that the ball went off her arm. The officials neglected to force the issue by doing so much as ask Martinez Sanchez whether the ball hit her or not. I can't imagine that would have been so difficult or controversial. Go watch the highlights if you haven't seen it - but it's pretty ridiculous. The issue was dropped and both players moved on, but after the match in the interview room, we pick up where we left off...imagine the lights dimming and a hush falling over the crowded room...
The following are highlights from both players' post-game press conferences (some bits slightly edited).
Reporter: Can you talk about what happened with the ball?
Serena Williams: ...the ball hit her body and therefore, she should have lost the point instead of cheating.
R: Do you think that she knew she had hit it?
SW: I hit that ball rather hard. She knew it hit her.
Cut to
R: Did it hit you?
MJMS: No.
R: She says it did.
MJMS: Yeah, she said because she want to win her game, you know.
R: On TV it sort of looked like it hit your hand or your arm.
MJMS: ...This question is like, you know, it's like a stupid question, you know.
Cut to
R: Did you use the word "cheating?"
SW: Well what would you use?
R: You should have had the point?
SW: ...It was clearly my point.
Cut to
MJMS: I'm here to speak about the match, not about this ball, you know.
Cut to
SW: I looked at her dead in the eye...Just be honest if you hit the ball or not. I mean, hello. It totally hit her.
R: Hence the comment, "she better not come to net again?"
SW: You guys heard that?...Well, I am from Compton, so, you know.
Cut to
R: She said that you cheated...would you like to comment on that please?
MJMS: No...it's a stupid comment.
And...scene.
Enjoy your Saturday night.
-Lena M. Glaser
1. Watch Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, Fernando Verdasco, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Gael Monfils along with viable veterans Andy Roddick, Nikolay Davydenko, and Fernando Gonzalez and you realize the men's game is at an all-time peak in terms of quality of play. The physical demands of success are unprecedented, more reason to appreciate what we see from Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.
2. Pink shirt aside, Rafael Nadal continues as the most stylish man to grace the red clay of Roland Garros. It was awe-inspiring as well as somewhat depressing to watch his thorough beating of Lleyton Hewitt on Friday. Hewitt was like many men over the last five years, coming to the court with the hope of employing tactics that might unveil some weakness in Nadal. But the great Nadal is a fabulous starter, and within a handful of games, he had communicated to all that Hewitt had no chance.
3. I talked to Roger Federer after his Thursday match, and he projects an air of relative unconcern over any dip in his play. Federer's grace, politeness, and decency should not obscure a robust self-confidence. The only damage to Federer is if he confuses self-confidence with denial. Federer devoted his time post-Miami (meltdown) to fitness and conditioning, and declares his efforts a rousing success. Winning Madrid was a slight confidence boost, only exceeded by his draw (quite unassuming).
4. The French Tennis Federation schedules matches with more home bias than the other home country federations do at the other majors. Some of the players afforded main show court playing time borders on the absurd. Meanwhile, former World No. 1 and French Open champion Juan Carlos Ferrero played Friday on an outer court than is nearly in Switzerland. The result: far too many empty seats on the show courts (the U.S. Open suffers the same problem in the daytime).
5. Justine Henin appeared at a sponsor event Thursday, and declared no interest in a comeback. The words only heightened the problems in the women's game as without a Williams sister in the mix, the results are not relevant.
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